Lithium prices have fallen more than 40% since late August, and one of the biggest Western producers got dragged down with them.

That is the counter-cyclical setup featured today, alongside a copper miner that just green-lit a new mine in Arizona and a US steelmaker with 53 straight years of dividend raises.

Different setups, one common thread: Western supply the market still underprices.

You probably know OpusClip as the tool that turns long videos into short clips.

With OpusClip 4.0, it's now a full AI video editor.

Drop in your raw footage or paste a link, toggle on the types of edits you want applied, and get back your finished video. You never have to touch a timeline!

The new OpusClip has it all:

Full podcast episode cleanup, 60-second highlight clips, low-fi yapper videos: OpusClip handles all of it.

Want to try it out? Get 40% off your first month of Pro Plan.

Try the new OpusClip →

China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed on November 9 that it is extending the suspension of its October 2025 export controls on rare earths, high-density lithium batteries, graphite anode material, and synthetic diamond tooling through January 10, 2027.

Read that date carefully. This is not a repeal. It is a two-month stay of execution that keeps the entire Western EV, defense, and wind turbine supply chain on a leash Beijing can yank at any moment.

The extension lines up with the US-China trade truce, which runs out the same weekend.

If talks stall, the October 2025 rules on additional heavy rare earths, battery materials, and graphite snap back into effect, including the provision that puts foreign products made with Chinese-origin rare earths under Chinese licensing.

That last part is the kill switch. It means a Japanese magnet bound for a US drone maker could need Beijing's sign-off before it ships.

Heavy rare earth prices outside China are already at or near records, per the latest US Critical Minerals Commodities Report, while light rare earths and lithium have fallen from their 2026 highs. The split is telling you exactly where the scarcity is.

Your takeaway: You have a hard date to trade around. Western rare earth processors, magnet makers, and non-China lithium producers get a direct catalyst on January 10 regardless of which way the truce breaks. Position before year-end, not after.

Brazil's government on November 5 formally adopted a list of 27 minerals deemed critical to its economy and security, with priority state support attached.

Lithium, nickel, rare earths, graphite, and copper all made the cut, and top-tier minerals also face screening of changes of control, so Brasília gets a say before a foreign buyer takes over a strategic deposit.

It wants a seat at the Western supply chain table that Washington is trying to pull together. Read this as Brazil opening a door you can walk through.

The timing is not accidental. The same week, ASX-listed Viridis Mining locked in an offtake with Solvay for mixed rare earth carbonate from its Colossus project in Poços de Caldas, Minas Gerais, underpinning minimum revenue of about US$915 million.

Five of the seven elements in that contract sit on China's export control list. That is a Western buyer locking in a revenue floor for non-Chinese rare earth supply.

Viridis is not US-listed, but track follow-on deals like it as your signal that Western buyers will keep paying up.

If you follow critical minerals, expect Brazilian iron ore, nickel laterites, and hard-rock lithium to see a wave of US and European project finance looking for a home that is not the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and not Indonesia.

Your takeaway: Any US-listed miner with Brazilian exposure just picked up a policy tailwind. You want to look at operators already producing in-country, because permitting new mines takes years, and the money is going to arrive first.

Washington just lined its own deadlines up with Beijing's. On November 10, the US Trade Representative extended 178 Section 301 tariff exclusions on Chinese goods through January 9, the day the broader trade truce expires.

The Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, and copper stay in place, and the adjusted rates set in June run through the end of 2027.

The incoming Democratic majorities in Congress could try to curb duties on steel, aluminum, and copper, per S&P Global. Any such bill would likely face a Trump veto, and an override takes two-thirds of both chambers.

If you own domestic mills, smelters, or copper producers, the policy risk just got pushed out, not removed.

You can see the protection in physical prices. The US Midwest aluminum premium has eased since spring but still sits around $1 a pound on top of the London price, and US hot-rolled coil futures trade far above European steel.

Your takeaway: The tariff wall is not coming down this winter. US-based steel, aluminum, and copper producers keep structural margin protection, with the June rates scheduled through 2027.

If you have been waiting for a pullback in domestic metal names to add, the policy risk you were worried about just got deferred.

Are you ready? As revealed in our holiday playbook, Roku Ads Manager lets you easily set up, measure and optimize your self-serve holiday ad campaign. You can even create a shoppable ad unit that lets streamers buy directly from their remote.

Set up your campaign today.

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB)

Lithium has crashed again, and Albemarle went down with it.

The most-active Guangzhou carbonate contract is down more than 40% since late August, Citigroup just cut its three-month lithium target to $12,000 a tonne from $20,000, and ALB shares have roughly halved over six months. That is exactly when you look.

ALB is one of the world's largest lithium producers, with hard-rock assets in Australia, including its stake in the Greenbushes mine, and brine operations in Chile's Salar de Atacama and at Silver Peak, Nevada.

The business underneath is in better shape than the share price suggests: third-quarter net sales rose 19% to $1.6 billion, adjusted EPS was $2.58, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $646 million.

Know the catch: management expects fourth-quarter sales and margins to fall sequentially as lower prices and higher-cost spodumene inventory flow through.

The upside trigger is the January 10 China deadline, which covers high-density battery cells and graphite anode material.

If those controls snap back, Western battery makers will pay up for lithium sourced outside China, and ALB is one of the few producers with the scale to deliver it. You are being handed a counter-cyclical entry on a Western lithium flagship.

Hudbay Minerals (NYSE: HBM)

Hudbay runs the Constancia copper mine in Peru, the Snow Lake gold, zinc, and copper complex in Manitoba, and the Copper Mountain mine in British Columbia.

On October 21, Hudbay and partner Mitsubishi approved construction of Copper World in Arizona, with first production targeted for 2029 and about 102,000 tonnes of copper a year planned over the first 10 years.

That makes HBM one of the few US-listed ways to own a new domestic copper mine before it is built, in a state Washington actually wants developed.

The balance sheet can carry it: Hudbay generated more than $200 million of free cash flow in the first half of 2026 and now holds net cash, while gold by-product credits keep its copper cash costs low enough that it improved cost guidance in July.

The next test is close: third-quarter results land before the open on Thursday, November 12. You get copper leverage, zinc and gold by-products, and a US growth project at a mid-cap valuation.

Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE)

Nucor is the largest US steelmaker, and its electric arc furnace fleet sits squarely behind the Section 232 tariff wall. Tariffs helped push finished steel imports from about 23% of the US market in 2024 to roughly 16% this year.

Demand is broad: Nucor sells into data center and warehouse construction, utility and grid structures, and non-residential building.

Third-quarter adjusted EPS came in at $5.80, and management guided fourth-quarter earnings in line with or modestly above the third quarter.

Growth comes from the tail end of a roughly $10 billion build-out: the new West Virginia sheet mill poured its first heat in September and ramps through 2027 and 2028, and a new galvanizing line in Berkeley, South Carolina adds 500,000 tons of capacity.

The balance sheet is strong, and Nucor has raised its base dividend for 53 consecutive years. You are getting a fortress-quality US industrial with a direct tariff tailwind. If you want one steel name you can hold through the midterm policy noise, this is it.

Gold: $4,070/oz, down about 6% year-to-date from the $4,350 January open, and well off the $5,590 peak. Central banks added 321 tonnes in Q3, up 42% year-over-year, the biggest quarterly total since Q4 2024. Structural bid is intact.

Silver: $53/oz, pulled back hard from the $121 all-time high set in January. Down about 26% YTD from the $71 open, but industrial demand from solar and EV wiring keeps the floor firm.

Copper: $6.32/lb, up about 12% YTD from $5.65. Lundin Mining's Q3 release flagged record copper prices during the quarter, and Hudbay just green-lit a new Arizona mine.

Uranium: Holding firm. Denison's Phoenix ISR project hit 24% total completion after its first quarter of full-scale construction, targeting first production in the second half of 2028. The REFUEL Act just passed the House, streamlining licensing for advanced nuclear fuel recycling.

Lithium: The most-active Guangzhou carbonate contract sits around 91,000 yuan a tonne, down more than 40% since late August, and Citi just cut its three-month target to $12,000. Watch the January 10 China export deadline.

Rare Earths: Heavy REE prices outside China at or near records. China's export suspension extended to January 10, 2027. Light REE prices have fallen from their 2026 highs.

Graphite: Synthetic graphite anode material stuck in a "hard to fall, hard to rise" range per SMM. China's export control pause on anode material also extended.

Antimony: China spot sits near 89,000 yuan a tonne, roughly half its high of the past year, as weak demand drags on prices. The defense case has not changed, and Perpetua's Stibnite project remains the flagship US domestic source in development.

Metal Trend Exploration Focus

Three dates now define the setup heading into year-end: January 9 for the US-China trade truce, January 10 for the rare earth and graphite controls, and the end of February for Q4 earnings from the major miners.

Every one of them points the same direction, which is tighter Western supply, firmer prices on China-controlled inputs, and a continued policy environment that rewards domestic production. You are not chasing a theme that already ran.

You are positioning ahead of a hard calendar event the market has written off because it got extended. Do not confuse delay with resolution. The gun is still cocked.

DATA CENTER SURGE

One chatbot question, and a server warehouse somewhere in America draws on the grid. Scale that across hundreds of millions of people daily.

Name the stock by text.

Data centers used 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023, per Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Its 2028 projection: up to 12%.

Send the ticker and story.

Close to a tripling in five years, on a grid that was not built for it. One company sits right where that power comes from.

*This ad is sent on behalf of Guardian Financial Publishing LLC, doing business as Stable Financial Publishing, 1013 Centre Road Suite 403-D, Wilmington, DE 19805. Nothing here is investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves substantial risk, including loss of principal; past performance does not guarantee future results. Data-center electricity figures are third-party estimates and projections, and AI IPO timing reflects investor expectations, not company guidance. References to OpenAI, Anthropic and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory are for informational purposes only; Stable Financial Publishing is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by OpenAI, Anthropic or Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Stable Financial Publishing, its owners, employees and contributors may hold positions in securities mentioned and may trade them at any time. Privacy: https://guardian.pub/privacy-policy/ · Terms: https://guardian.pub/terms-of-service/

— Noah Zelvis, Resource Brief