Metals just took a payrolls hit, and PGMs are inflecting off multi-year lows. Inside today's issue, you get the gold major buying back stock while costs fall, the streaming company generating record free cash flow without touching a drill, and a distressed PGM producer growing a copper option the market has not modeled.

GOLD BEFORE CHANGE

In 1971, one Sunday-night announcement changed the dollar almost overnight.

Today, investors are again asking what inflation, policy shifts, and rising central-bank gold demand could mean for retirement savings.

This free guide explains why gold is back in focus, how physical gold can fit into certain retirement strategies, and what some investors are doing to prepare before the next major monetary shift.

Chinese rare earth suppliers have started refusing shipments to U.S. customers, three sources told Kitco last week. Nothing formal from Beijing, just exporters complying ahead of President Xi's upcoming visit and a clear read from exporters that shipping to America right now invites trouble. If you source rare earths from China, assume your next order gets refused.

This is the January 2026 export restriction playbook, evolved. Back then Beijing tied gallium, germanium, graphite and magnet curbs to Japan explicitly over Taiwan. Now the pressure is bleeding into commercial behavior without Beijing needing to issue a single new rule. Western manufacturers testing alternate supply chains discover the same thing every time: qualifying a new anode graphite supplier takes 18 to 36 months of cell-level testing. Magnet substitution is worse. Price in that 18- to 36-month gap before you buy any Western magnet or graphite name on this news.

You already know MP Materials (NYSE: MP) got a federal equity stake for exactly this reason. What you might not have priced in: Energy Transition Minerals just won a favorable court ruling on Kvanefjeld in Greenland, one of the largest undeveloped rare earth deposits outside China. The Western alternative pipeline is real, but it does not solve 2027 supply. It solves 2029.

Your takeaway: Any Western processor with permitted, near-term capacity is scarce inventory. You want exposure to companies with existing separation facilities or federal backing, not concept-stage deposits that need five more years and a magnet plant.

Here is what Bloomberg flagged Wednesday, and it is the print mine watchers have been waiting for: global copper output fell 1.1% in the first half of 2026. First-half declines are rare. The last one drove the 2021 breakout, so treat this as your setup signal.

Codelco cut Chuquicamata volumes again, and its 2026 guidance of 1.33 to 1.36 million tonnes is now described as difficult. LME cash-to-3-month backwardation blew out to $250 to $450 per tonne. Shanghai social inventory hit the lowest level since early 2024, down nearly 19% week over week. LME 3-month copper on Friday sat near $14,730 per tonne. Use $14,730 as your line in the sand.

Do not ignore zinc, the story the consensus missed. The market entered 2026 forecasting a 271,000 tonne surplus. Now LME zinc is at a four-year high on tight ore supply and firm galvanizing demand, with the 2026 balance flipping to deficit. Nickel is grinding higher too on Indonesian mining quota cuts and El Niño water risk at Morowali, so track Morowali headlines for your next nickel entry.

Your takeaway: The industrial metals complex is running hotter than the consensus forecasts published just eight months ago. If you own the base-metal miners, ride them. If you don't, that's the trade to build into on any dollar strength pullback.

August nonfarm payrolls printed 162,000 against a 56,000 estimate. Wage inflation cooled to 3.1%. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 58% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on September 16, up from 52% pre-print. Gold slid to $4,440. Silver got hit harder, dropping to $66. If you hold metals, mark September 16 on your calendar.

Here's what actually matters. Central banks kept accumulating through the entire selloff, and the SMM daily commentary out of Shanghai on Sunday reiterated that central bank buying is providing structural medium- and long-term support even as futures traders fade. Perth Mint August sales slumped, but that's retail flow, not the sovereign bid moving 60 tonnes per month.

You are looking at a pullback from an all-time high near $5,590 set earlier this year. Gold is still up roughly 2% year-to-date from the January open at $4,350, despite this week's beating. Silver is down about 7.5% year-to-date and sitting way off its 52-week high of $121, meaning you're closer to a base than a top.

Your takeaway: This week's CPI and PPI prints are the real setup, not Friday's payrolls reaction. If inflation cools, the hike bet unwinds and bullion rips back. If it doesn't, central banks keep buying and you get a better entry.

FIVE STOCKS ACCELERATING

Every market cycle produces a handful of companies that dramatically outperform the rest.

Our latest screening has identified the 5 Stocks Set to Double — companies showing rare early-stage momentum traits.

These picks carry the same indicators that historically precede strong rallies.

Past reports highlighted stocks that surged +175%, +498%, and +673%.

*This free resource is being sent by Zacks. We identify investment resources you may choose to use in making your own decisions. Use of this resource is subject to the Zacks Terms of Service.
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk. This material does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Zacks Investment Research is not a licensed dealer, broker, or investment adviser.

Newmont is the biggest gold producer on the planet, and the setup right now is textbook. Central banks are absorbing supply at 60 tonnes per month, gold pulled back on rate-hike noise that will not survive a soft CPI print, and NEM has already done the painful work: post-Newcrest asset sales cleared the balance sheet, non-core divestitures closed for over $4 billion in cash, and the buyback program is chewing through shares while the market focuses on the Fed narrative.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC, the true cost of producing an ounce) are trending down as high-cost mines exit the portfolio. You get diversified geography, tier-one assets in Nevada, Australia, and Canada, and a dividend that resets with the gold price.

This is the name institutional money buys when they want gold exposure without single-mine risk.

Wheaton is not a miner. It writes checks upfront to buy the future silver and gold production of other people's mines at fixed low prices, then pockets the spread when spot prices rip. That means no fuel bills, no union labor, no ESG headaches, and margins that expand faster than any pure producer when metals go up.

With both metals still well above Wheaton's cost basis on almost every stream, free cash flow generation is running at record levels. The company has been adding streams aggressively over the past 18 months, and management guided to a decade of production growth without needing to raise capital.

If you want gold and silver exposure with lower operating risk and better margin leverage, this is your instrument.

Sibanye trades like a distressed platinum group metals (PGM) story, which is what everyone missed. Palladium and platinum have been basing for a year, PGM prices are inflecting off multi-year lows, and management just got board approval to restart the Mt Lyell copper mine in Tasmania, with first production targeted for early 2029.

That adds a copper leg to a business the market still models as pure PGM. South African gold operations are throwing off cash again after the labor issues were resolved; the U.S. Stillwater mine is running lean after the 2024 restructuring, and the balance sheet has room to breathe.

If PGMs recover even modestly into 2027 while the copper option builds, this is the kind of setup that moves violently off a low base. You are getting three metals for the price of one busted turnaround.

HIDDEN TAX BREAKS

Capital gains taxes may quietly reduce more of your investment returns than you realize.

But the tax code includes several strategies that may help reduce that bill.

Three often-overlooked areas include investment-related expenses, cost basis adjustments, and real estate selling costs.

When structured correctly, these deductions may help minimize taxable gains.

Because the rules can be complex, many investors work with fiduciary financial advisors to plan tax-efficient strategies.

• Gold: $4,450/oz. Pulled back from the $5,590 peak on Fed hike bets, up ~2% year to date from the January $4,350 open. Central bank demand is structurally at 60t/month. 

• Silver: $67/oz. Down ~7.5% year to date, off dramatically from the $121 52-week high. The payrolls print did the damage. CPI Wednesday is the reset. 

• Copper: $6.70/lb. Up ~17% year to date, sitting near the 52-week high of $6.75. Codelco cuts and a 19% Shanghai inventory drawdown say the squeeze is not over.

• Zinc: LME touched a four-year high in early September. The 2026 surplus forecast just flipped to deficit. Few desks were positioned for this. 

• Nickel: LME near $16,900/tonne. Indonesian quota cuts and El Niño water risk at Morowali are putting a floor under prices for the first time in two years. 

• Uranium: Consolidating in the low $70s per pound. Utility contracting cycle intact; Western enrichment capacity still the bottleneck.

• Rare Earths: Chinese suppliers refusing some U.S. shipments. Neodymium-praseodymium prices firming in ex-China markets. Western processor scarcity premium expanding. 

• Lithium: Spodumene rebounding hard, Pilbara Minerals just posted a 121% price rise driving record $1.93B revenue. Sigma Lithium's Brazilian production halt over the weekend removes supply into a tightening market.

Metal Trend Exploration Focus

Friday's payrolls print gave the rate-cut crowd a black eye, but the underlying setup across metals did not change. Copper supply is contracting, zinc flipped from surplus to deficit inside eight months, rare earth access is being weaponized without a single new export rule, and the central bank gold bid absorbed the entire selloff without flinching.

This is what a supply-driven cycle looks like when it gets tested by a strong dollar and survives. Size your metals exposure before the September Fed meeting removes the headline overhang.

— Noah Zelvis, Resource Brief