Section 232 tariffs are padding margins for domestic metals distributors, royalty checks keep landing for one gold streamer, and a new met coal mine is finally ramping.

Each setup has a cleaner expression than the obvious trade, and each one reports in the next three weeks. Here are the names working each angle.

GOLD BUYING POWER

In 1971, the average U.S. wage bought 125 pounds of gold. Today I bought just one.

Under the guise of strengthening it, a 55-year policy has eroded the dollar's purchasing power.

Weiss Ratings senior analyst Gavin Magor calls this "Project Pyramid." Foreign nations have noticed too. Global gold reserves are up 130% since 2015, while dollar reserves are at an all-time low.

UBS's Chief Investment Office said on October 8 that it sees the refined copper deficit widening from 219,000 tonnes this year to 379,000 tonnes in 2027, and it kept its price target of $15,500 per tonne, roughly $7.03/lb, for 2027. That sits only modestly above where copper trades today, so the call is about staying tight, not a spike.

The bank's logic is straightforward: mine supply is capped by concentrate shortages, Chinese smelters are fighting over too little ore, and demand keeps compounding from electrification and AI data center buildout.

For perspective, the International Copper Study Group was projecting a 209,000-tonne surplus for 2026 back in the spring of 2025. Forecasters have been forced to flip from surplus to deficit in about 18 months.

China is confirming the demand side. The Yangshan premium, what importers pay to bring copper into China, ended last week at $135 per tonne, a four-year high, as buyers returned from the Golden Week holiday.

Projects approved today take a decade or more to produce metal, so any copper exposure you add now is a bet on that gap staying open.

Your takeaway: You want copper exposure in place before the market decides the deficit is permanent, not after. Favor producers and processors already selling metal into this market over developers still years from first production.

About 700 workers at Antofagasta's Centinela mine in northern Chile walked out on October 7 after government-mediated contract talks failed.

That is roughly a fifth of the direct workforce, and the unions say the full hit lands in November, when output could fall by half. Voluntary mediation is set for Tuesday, October 13, so watch that meeting for the first sign of how long this runs.

You've seen this movie. Grasberg in Indonesia is still recovering from its September 2025 mudslide, and Chilean labor talks have repeatedly cost tonnes. Even the good news is uneven: Ivanhoe reported Q3 Kamoa-Kakula output of 76,401 tonnes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, up about 19% from Q2, yet the complex is still tracking toward the low end of its 2026 guidance.

Chile's labor cycle isn't going away. Wage pressure, water constraints, and aging infrastructure mean disruptions are now part of the base case. For your copper view, the length of the Centinela stoppage matters more than the headline that it started.

Your takeaway: Strike headlines tend to put a bid under copper equities. If you wait for an all-clear on supply before buying, you will likely pay up for it. Add when the headlines look bad, and trim when they look good.

Glencore's MARA copper project in Argentina received approval under the country's RIGI investment regime on October 2.

That locks in long-term fiscal, customs and currency guarantees behind a roughly $4 billion commitment for a project that could produce more than 200,000 tonnes of copper a year. The restart of the nearby Alumbrera mine is expected to deliver first production in the second half of 2027, while the full MARA build runs to around 2031.

RIGI is President Milei's regime for large investments, and MARA is its flagship copper deal. Argentina has historically been hard to underwrite for mining capex because of currency controls and political risk.

Glencore is betting that has changed in writing. If you track copper names with Argentine exposure, treat MARA as the template for the next RIGI approval you see.

Read it this way: expect more capital to flow into Argentine copper, lithium and silver through 2027, especially while DRC risk keeps rising. For your allocation decisions, that is where the money is moving.

Your takeaway: If you own copper names, check where their tonnes come from. Jurisdiction matters as much as grade right now, and Argentina is the one to watch if the Milei framework holds.

BEHIND THE STARPHONE

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Tech expert Josh Baylin believes Musk is building toward a device he calls “Starphone.”

And he says the biggest opportunity may be in the companies positioned behind it.

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Reliance Inc. (NYSE: RS)

Reliance runs the largest metals service center network in North America, with roughly 320 locations sitting between US mills and end customers. With Section 232 tariffs at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper products, imports get pricier and domestic pricing firms up.

You saw it in Q2: record tons sold and higher selling prices pushed sales up 27% to $4.63 billion, and FIFO gross margin improved to 30.5% from 30.1% in Q1.

Infrastructure spending, data center construction, and manufacturing reshoring all run through the service center channel. Management guided Q3 non-GAAP EPS to $6.40 to $6.60, including about $0.60 from the US border wall contract, and the company has been shrinking its share count with buybacks since 2021.

Q3 results land Wednesday, October 21, after the close. If you want steel exposure without calling the exact mill margin, this is the cleanest way to own it.

Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE: TFPM)

Triple Flag owns a portfolio of precious metals streams and royalties, so it collects gold and silver without running mines. Asset margins ran about 94% in Q2, which means higher metal prices drop almost straight to the bottom line instead of being eaten by mining costs.

The model is simple: pay miners capital upfront in exchange for a slice of future production at a fixed low cost. Triple Flag raised its 2026 guidance to 100,000 to 110,000 gold equivalent ounces and expects to land between the midpoint and the high end.

It closed a $440 million gold stream on Australia's Ravenswood mine in Q2, booked first deliveries in Q3, and raised its dividend for the fifth straight year. Preliminary Q3 revenue was $106.7 million, with full results due Tuesday, November 3, after the close. If you believe gold holds above $4,000, this one works.

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU)

Peabody's growth story is metallurgical coal, the kind used to make steel. Its new Centurion longwall mine in Queensland finished most of its commissioning work this year, and management is targeting 1.5 million to 2.0 million tons of sales from it in the second half of 2026 as costs move toward run-rate levels. India's blast furnace buildout is the demand driver to watch into 2027.

The US thermal business still generates cash, and Peabody used Q2 to clean up its balance sheet, refinancing convertible notes into a 2031 issue and extending its credit facility to 2030.

It pays a $0.075 quarterly dividend. This is the highest-risk pick of the three: Q2 was a loss and the market cap sits just above $3 billion, so size it accordingly. Q3 results are expected Thursday, October 29, and Centurion's tonnage is the number that matters.

FOLLOW THE OWNERSHIP

Microsoft reportedly holds 27%. The nonprofit holds 26%. Employees own 25%.

Retail’s direct stake in the company behind ChatGPT? Zero.

But four publicly traded companies are already tied to that same ownership story, giving ordinary investors a potential way to get exposure through a regular brokerage account.

A free report reveals those four names, plus 3 key suppliers behind the company’s compute, power, and distribution needs.

• Gold: $4,200/oz, down about 3% from the $4,350 January open and about 25% below its $5,590 peak. Central banks reported 39 tonnes of net buying in August and about 170 tonnes year-to-date, per the World Gold Council.

• Silver: $61/oz, down about 14% from the $71 January open and well off the $121 peak. Industrial demand from solar and electronics remains the floor.

• Copper: $6.76/lb, up about 20% from the $5.65 January open and trading not far below its 52-week high. UBS targets about $7.03/lb for 2027 as the deficit widens.

• Uranium: Spot holding near $90/lb, with long-term contract prices around $96.50. Miners have pulled back while the physical price has held.

• Lithium: Stabilizing after a brutal multi-year drawdown, with battery storage building a second leg of demand alongside EVs.

• Nickel: Coface sees prices doubling by 2035 as EV battery demand outruns Indonesian supply. Current levels still reflect oversupply from the nickel pig iron glut.

• Platinum: Tight above-ground stocks keep a firm bid under the metal, and it still trades at a deep discount to gold.

• Rare Earths: Domestic processing capacity remains the bottleneck for the US supply chain, despite record federal investment.

Metal Trend Exploration Focus

The theme running through today's issue is simple: supply is the constraint. Copper, uranium, and met coal all share the same setup, decade-long build cycles meeting an electrification demand curve that keeps compounding.

Section 232 tariffs and friend-shoring are compressing the time window further. Miners and distributors with existing US and allied-jurisdiction production have optionality the market hasn't fully priced.

Keep watching Chile headlines, Argentina capex announcements, and Washington's next critical minerals equity stake. Those three signals will drive the next six months of this sector.

— Noah Zelvis, Resource Brief