Beijing's next round of rare earth export controls lands in November, central banks keep buying gold, and Brazil just put federal money behind its own processing build-out.

Today we walk through a producer sitting on the world's largest copper reserves, a gold major with tier-one mines in four friendly jurisdictions, and a Brazilian steelmaker the market has forgotten.

HIDDEN TAX BREAKS

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You've got roughly 50 days before Beijing's next round of rare earth export controls kicks in, and the Western supply chain is not ready. Fastmarkets now reports that refiners, recyclers, and magnet makers outside China face uncertainty over feedstock, equipment, and technology access when the new restrictions land in November.

The response is showing up in physical infrastructure. The first US commercial rare earth magnet recycling plant just opened in South Carolina, designed to refine 2,000 metric tonnes of magnet material a year with a path to 6,000. Cyclic broke ground on an Arizona rare earth processing facility.

The White House also upgraded end-of-life magnets and manufacturing scrap to "industrial resources necessary to national defense" under the Defense Production Act. Track the ramp from 2,000 to 6,000 tonnes as your read on how fast this build-out lands.

This piece is underweighted, and it is where you can get ahead. When Beijing tightens the taps, prices for anything ex-China spike, and permitted Western processors get contracts written at whatever price is required to keep magnets flowing to defense primes and auto OEMs (original equipment manufacturers). You saw this movie in 2010. The rerun is louder, so put permitted Western processors on your shortlist now.

Your takeaway: You want exposure to permitted, non-Chinese rare earth capacity and to the diversified miners that produce byproduct rare earths at scale. The November calendar catalyst is fixed. The pricing response will not be.

The US just signed a preliminary critical minerals agreement with Kenya covering the Mrima Hill deposit, which holds rare earths and niobium valued at north of $62 billion. Officials made a point of saying "we will not exploit you," which is the diplomatic equivalent of telegraphing that this is about counter-positioning China, not building goodwill.

The same week, Brazil's Senate passed the rare earth minerals regulation, R$2 billion guarantee fund included, and Lula is expected to sign. The country now has federal capital behind processing plants, plus tax credits from 2030 to 2034 worth R$5 billion.

Ivanhoe's Western Forelands copper discovery in the DRC just got bigger by 30%, taking contained copper to 12 million tonnes, and Robert Friedland is now openly saying US tech companies have approached him about locking in future supply. If you want exposure to that supply race, track Ivanhoe and the Brazil signing date.

You are watching a hemispheric realignment. Africa and Latin America hold the deposits. Washington is writing the checks. China is losing the exclusivity it enjoyed for a decade.

Your takeaway: The winners here are producers with tier-one assets in friendly jurisdictions who can plug directly into US or allied offtake. Africa and Latin America exposure went from a risk factor to a strategic premium in about eight months.

If you own gold, note that the People's Bank of China added another 650,000 troy ounces in August, extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months. That is the longest run on record. Central banks globally added 23 tonnes in July, with China and Poland doing the heavy lifting, and year-to-date official sector buying stands at 130 tonnes. Watch whether September prints a 23rd month.

Gold is trading at $4,400 today. That is off the $5,586 peak, but the price alone tells you nothing about the underlying bid.

Emerging market central banks are diversifying reserves away from dollars at a pace we have never seen, and Namibia is targeting a move from 1% to 3% gold reserves by March 2027. That is one country. The trend is fifty.

The setup for gold miners is more interesting to you than the gold price itself. Producers locked in cash costs at $1,200 to $1,500 an ounce during the last cycle. At $4,400 gold, every ounce coming out of the ground is a printing press.

Free cash flow yields on the majors are running at levels the sector has not seen since the early 2000s, so look at the majors before you look at bullion.

Your takeaway: You do not need gold to make new highs to make money in the miners. You need it to stay above $3,500. Central bank demand structurally guarantees that floor.

GOLD BEFORE CHANGE

In 1971, one Sunday-night announcement changed the dollar almost overnight.

Today, investors are again asking what inflation, policy shifts, and rising central-bank gold demand could mean for retirement savings.

This free guide explains why gold is back in focus, how physical gold can fit into certain retirement strategies, and what some investors are doing to prepare before the next major monetary shift.

Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO)

Southern Copper is sitting on the world's largest copper reserves and running mines in Peru and Mexico, exactly the jurisdictions US buyers want as they build stockpiles ahead of the next tariff round.

LME data shows one of the largest US copper inventories on record has been built up in recent months as industrial buyers front-run policy. Copper is trading near the top of its 52-week range as industrial buyers keep stockpiling. Grupo México still owns 88% of SCCO, which gives you scarcity in the float and a management team that runs one of the lowest all-in sustaining cost (AISC) portfolios in the industry.

Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM)

Agnico runs tier-one gold operations in Canada, Australia, Mexico, and Finland, which reads like a friendly-jurisdiction map drawn by the US Treasury. At today's gold prices, its Canadian Malartic and Detour Lake mines are generating cash flow the analyst models still have not caught up to.

Central bank buying is structural, not tactical, and Agnico is the producer institutional funds tend to buy first when the gold allocation gets turned up. Dividends are growing, the balance sheet is nearly net cash, and management has a track record of building mines at cost.

Gerdau S.A. (NYSE: GGB)

Brazil just passed the rare earth bill and is putting real federal capital behind domestic processing. That reads like a rare earth story on the surface, but the real second-order winner is the country's diversified miners and steelmakers.

Gerdau produces long steel, iron ore, and specialty steels across Brazil and North America, and it stands to benefit from the tax credits, guarantee fund, and downstream industrial capex Brazil is pushing. Iron ore is holding firm on Chinese steel demand, and the stock trades at a fraction of the multiple applied to its North American peers.

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• Gold: $4,400/oz. Off the $5,586 peak but central bank buying now at 22 straight months for China. Structural floor is higher than most models assume.

• Silver: $65/oz. Pulled back hard from the $121 all-time high hit in January. Down roughly 10% year-to-date from the $71 open, but the industrial demand story from solar and electronics has not changed.

• Copper: $6.50/lb. Up roughly 16% year-to-date from the $5.65 January open. White House copper tariff plan stalled on affordability, but US stockpiles keep building, and the deficit narrative remains intact.

• Uranium: Consolidating in the mid-$80s per pound after last year's run. November nuclear restart announcements from Japan and continued Western utility contracting keep the supply-demand math tight into 2027.

• Lithium carbonate: Spot at roughly $12,000 per tonne, with GFEX futures hovering around Yuan 140,000. Supply is recovering, but the structural deficit persists into H2 2026, and Zimbabwe's January 2027 concentrate export ban is the next catalyst.

• Rare earths: Ex-China prices firming ahead of Beijing's November export controls. NdPr and dysprosium premiums outside China are widening. Recycling capacity is coming online in South Carolina and Arizona but is nowhere near enough to close the gap.

• Tungsten: UK just took a strategic stake in the £71 million Hemerdon restart in Devon. Prices firm as Western governments treat the metal like the strategic material it always was.

• Nickel sulfate: Around $4,358/mt in China. Weak on soft EV demand near-term, but battery-grade tightness remains the structural story.

— Noah Zelvis, Resource Brief